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<\/p>\nFrancesco Bagnaia needs to ride risk free to seal back-to-back MotoGP world championships this weekend.<\/p>\n
That's the verdict of former MotoGP rider turned TNT Sports pundit Neil Hodgson with Bagnaia 21 points ahead of Jorge Martin heading to Valencia for the final weekend of the season. <\/p>\n
Bagnaia won the title last year and Martin's tenth-placed finish at last weekend's Qatar GP makes the Italian a strong favourite to go back-to-back. Though Hodgson knows Martin could make it a tricky weekend, with Bagnaia looking to avoid the same mistake Valentino Rossi made 17 years ago.<\/p>\n
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"We should have been going into this final round with less than ten points between them," Hodgson told Daily Star Sport<\/b>. "Now, there's still a mathematical possibility that Jorge Martin can win, but it's out of his hands.<\/p>\n
"He needs Bagnaia to either make a big mistake or have a huge choking session, but because he's already won the title before, I think he's better than that.<\/p>\n
"He'll be nervous. Nobody ever remembers who won the last race, the only thing people ever talk about is you're the champion. If he goes to attack, anything can happen.<\/p>\n
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"Jorge Martin has got nothing to lose, he'll throw everything at it. I expect Jorge Martin to win the sprint race, the gap come down a bit, but I think Bagnaia will collect a few points in the sprint and just need a top-eight in the main race.<\/p>\n
"But we saw in the famous year of 2006, Valentino Rossi had to ride around and get a top six finish [to win the title]. He'd been obviously fast all year and he made a mistake and crashed and Nicky Hayden rolled around, finished second or third and won the championship.<\/p>\n
"So if Valentino Rossi can make a mistake in similar circumstances, anything's possible."<\/p>\n
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Though risk-free MotoGP riding isn't an easy thing to do, with bikes going from 0-60mph in less than three seconds and travelling in excess of 220mph at times.<\/p>\n
"It does [make it trickier]," Hodgson, who won the the 2003 Superbike World Championship, added. "You have two choices. You can prepare exactly like a normal weekend, which is what he'll say. The problem is, when you're pushing that hard on the limits, it's easy to go over the line.<\/p>\n
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"Especially in Valencia, it's a tight, twisty track. It's like a little go-kart track. Compared to tracks we've been on recently, the track temperature will be down.<\/p>\n
"You don't get the same feedback through the bike so if Bagnaia pushes to go for the win, tucks the front and crashes, he'll be the biggest fool there's been."<\/p>\n
Watch all the weekend action from the Grand Prix of Valencia live on TNT Sports 2, with coverage of the main race starting from 1:30pm on Sunday 26th November. TNT Sports is available to stream on discovery+ and across all major TV platforms. This isn\u2019t Just Sport, This is Everything. For more info visit: www.tntsports.co.uk\/moto\/<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n