Top Fantasy Premier League tips for GW5: Son Heung-min can rival Erling Haaland for captaincy, don’t get cold feet on Chelsea just yet – and who you should go for in the upcoming double gameweek
- FPL has returned after the international break, with GW5 just around the corner
- Mail Sport takes a look at the big talking points ahead of Saturday’s deadline
- Listen to the latest episode of Mail Sport’s podcast It’s All Kicking Off!
The September international break is in the books and that only means one thing: Premier League football is back.
For the first time this season, the FPL deadline is on a Saturday this week so you have a few extra hours to mull over those all-important decisions.
Shortly before the first Euro 2024 qualifier last week, the Premier League announced that Luton’s postponed clash with Burnley has been rescheduled for October 3, meaning the two newly-promoted sides will enjoy a double gameweek in GW7.
Is it worth bringing in players from the two bottom-placed sides? Should we keep faith in Chelsea’s players? Is Son Heung-min the real deal or was his hat-trick against Burnley just a flash in the pan?
After assessing all the major talking points in FPL, Mail Sport is back with three top tips ahead of the GW5 deadline.
The Premier League is back after international break, with GW5 just around the corner in FPL
Struggling Luton and Burnley will take part in the first double gameweek of the season in GW7
Assessing all the major talking points in FPL, Mail Sport is back with three top tips for GW5
Here are Mail Sport’s biggest takeaways from GW4:
Highest xG in 2023-24 so far
Erling Haaland, MCI – 4.63
Bryan Mbeumo, BRE – 4.10
Nicolas Jackson, CHE – 3.03
Mohamed Salah, LIV – 2.49
Yoane Wissa , BRE – 2.37
Evan Ferguson, BHA – 2.36
Jarrod Bowen, WHU – 2.28
Odsonne Edouard, CRY – 2.28
Bukayo Saka, ARS – 2.23
Matty Cash, AVL – 2.08
*xG = Expected goals
Erling Haaland climbed to the summit of the xG tables after his hat-trick against Fulham
- Son Heung-min is now operating as a No 9 under Ange Postecoglou after the Australian coach dropped Richarlison against Burnley. He benefitted immensely from playing inside, scoring his first hat-trick of the season.
- Manchester City’s Erling Haaland proved just why he’s an essential asset to own in FPL with yet another hat-trick against Fulham. The consistency and explosiveness he offers is well worth the premium price tag.
- Chelsea disappointed FPL managers with a dismal 1-0 defeat against Nottingham Forest. Their fixture run is still very appealing but they’ll need to start converting xG into goals soon. Nicolas Jackson, again, had a great chance but failed to deliver.
- Bryan Mbeumo continues to assert himself as the best value pick in the game after yet another goal against Bournemouth. If you own him, he’s going nowhere despite the tempting midfield assets on offer at the moment.
- Mo Salah‘s potential move to Saudi Arabia has fallen through – and he is now an option once again in FPL. Only he and Taiwo Awoniyi have returned in every match so far, but he probably isn’t worth the price tag until he starts matching Haaland’s output and rivals him for captaincy.
- Julian Alvarez started behind Haaland again in GW4 and this time rewarded owners with a goal. Champions League fixtures will no doubt muddy the waters as far as guaranteed starts are concerned, but he’ll continue to offer excellent value if he keeps his place.
- Odsonne Edouard has nailed down Crystal Palace’s No 9 role over Jean-Philippe Mateta and scored a brace against Wolves in GW4. He was a rotation threat last season but at £5.5m he’s emerging a viable and valuable forward under Roy Hodgson.
- Jordan Pickford is continuing to frustrate owners, scoring an own goal and conceding twice against Sheffield United. Everton can’t keep a clean sheet for love nor money at the moment, despite boasting promising xGC numbers,. With Arsenal up next, the goalkeeper could be worth a sell if there aren’t other fires to put out in your team.
- Manchester United are getting the most out of Marcus Rashford again after moving him back to the left wing. Despite losing to Arsenal 3-1 last time out, the England star got his goal with a trademark finish off the left flank and could continue to damage against Brighton, who enjoy playing with a high line.
Marcus Rashford netted his first of the season with a trademark finish off the left wing in GW4
Everton’s Jordan Pickford continued to frustrate owners with an own goal against the Blades
Fulham keeper Bernd Leno has averaged an astonishing 5.5 saves per match, but his xGC is 12.1
Captaincy for GW4
Sometimes in FPL, the hardest thing to do is to do nothing. But with Erling Haaland scoring as frequently as he has been in recent weeks, there’s really no need to move the armband off him.
That being said, those who fancy adding a bit of spice to their diet may consider Son Heung-min against Sheffield United, given that the South Korean is now playing No 9 for Spurs.
Several Raheem Sterling owners will tell you that it’s often wise giving one week’s worth of data a wide berth, as the Chelsea star failed to deliver against Nottingham Forest after his electric performance in GW3.
But frankly, Son’s situation is different to Sterling’s. The Chelsea star has operated in the same role all season, while Son has undergone a position change, now closer to James Maddison and central to everything Tottenham do.
Of course, I would not rip my team apart to get Son this week. Haaland is a perfectly viable captain and will still probably do plenty of damage against West Ham.
It’s pretty even. But for those who whack the armband on Son this week, I cannot knock the decision.
Man City forward Erling Haaland remains the best captaincy pick once again for GW4
Son at No 9 is the real deal
When Harry Kane left Tottenham to join Bayern Munich, Son Heung-min was the obvious answer to the question: ‘Who’s going to score the goals now for Spurs?’
But in truth, until GW4, it’s been James Maddison who has hogged the headlines. The ex-Leicester star has been phenomenal so far under Postecoglou and almost taken over the baton from Kane as Tottenham’s new talisman.
The reason Son was overlooked by FPL managers at the start of season, despite being fairly priced at £9.0m, was because of his positioning. He struggled to score and create goals from the left wing last season and the manager made no indication in preseason that the South Korean would regularly start at No 9.
Instead Postecoglou opted for Richarlison, who frankly underperformed and has now been dropped. The Brazilian could always take a few minutes away from the 31-year-old when he comes on at the end of a match, but I think it’s safe to assume that the striker position is now Son’s place to lose after his hat-trick against Burnley.
Let’s not forget: Son has a history of performing superbly down the middle, because he consistently overperforms his xG and is a lethal finisher in and around the penalty area.
During Son’s Golden Boot winning 2021-22 campaign, Kane dropped deeper to create chances for Spurs almost like a quarter-back, which allowed for more space in advanced central areas for the South Korean.
Antonio Conte utilised his favoured back three formation at Tottenham after taking over from Nuno Espirito Santo, and Son was able to drift inside more because the wing-back behind him was tasked with providing the width on the left-hand side.
Since Spurs have switched to a 4-3-3, Son has had less freedom to cut inside against low-block teams because he’s been asked to hog the touchline.
Now he is no longer the winger and is the central striker, he has the freedom to operate in and around the penalty box and is the furthest forward when Spurs look to break out from defence.
Among Tottenham players, Son is second behind Maddison for xG and xA and will likely continue to have penalties given that he deputised from the spot in Kane’s absence last season.
The question remains: should FPL managers rush to get him in this week? With a plum fixture against Sheffield United in GW5, there’s every chance Son hauls big again under Postecoglou.
The caveat is that Tottenham face rivals Arsenal at the Emirates and Liverpool at home in their next two matches. The South Korean is typically great on the counter-attack and could score against any side, but it seems counter-intuitive to bring him in for Sheffield United if it means he blanks in his next two games.
Given that Son has only played one match at No 9, my plan is to wait and see how he plays in the next three games and accept my fate if he hauls against the Blades. That way, I’ll know exactly what to expect from him for Luton, Fulham and Crystal Palace between GW8 and GW10.
That doesn’t mean he’s not right at the top of my shopping list, mind.
Son Heung-min bagged his first hat-trick of the season against Burnley after moving centrally
He linked up superbly with James Maddison (right), who’s also impressed at Spurs this season
The South Korean star only managed an average of 1.67 shots per match before facing Burnley in GW4 – but enjoyed five shots against the Clarets after moving to his favoured No 9 position
Carlton Morris could be a surprise package
I wasn’t expecting to big up a Luton player in this week’s column a fortnight ago, but now that the Hatters have a double gameweek in GW7, one man has caught my eye.
For those of you who haven’t seen, the postponed fixture between Luton and Burnley in GW2 has now been rearranged in GW7, meaning both newly-promoted sides will have two fixtures that week.
Double gameweeks are an excellent way of maximising points in FPL, particularly if you can pick a player who will play close to 180 minutes across the two fixtures.
This is why the Bench Boost and Triple Captain chips are best left until later in the season, because the likes of Manchester City and Arsenal will have fixtures rearranged depending on how far they get in domestic cups and European competitions.
Although this is the first double gameweek of the season, it’s possibly the least exciting one possible (sorry Luton and Burnley fans!). Both the Hatters and the Clarets sit at the foot of the Premier League table and have struggled for form so far this season.
Luton talisman Carlton Morris could offer excellent value at £5.5m ahead of double GW7
If your team is performing very well and you don’t have many players you’re unhappy with, it’s perfectly viable to ignore this double gameweek entirely. But in FPL, no matter who you are, an extra game always tends to tip the scales in your favour.
It’s crucial to look at who teams play before and after the double gameweek, unless you plan on wildcarding directly after it. In this instance, Luton have significantly better fixtures than Burnley.
Luton fixtures
GW5: Fulham (A)
GW6: Wolves (H)
GW7: Everton (A); Burnley (H)
GW8: Tottenham (H)
GW9: Nottingham Forest (A)
Burnley fixtures
GW5: Nottingham Forest (A)
GW6: Manchester United (H)
GW7: Newcastle (A); Luton (A)
GW8: Chelsea (H)
GW9: Brentford (A)
As the Clarets have two away fixtures during the double gameweek, sandwiched by home games to Manchester United and Chelsea, they’re an easy team to avoid.
Meanwhile, Luton have five promising fixtures in their next six matches, with Tottenham the only top six side they’ll face before GW11.
Nine goals conceded in three matches does not read well as far as their defence is concerned, but Rob Edwards’ side looked better in attack against West Ham in GW4 and could be worth a punt given the sea of green fixtures.
What’s more, Luton faced a tough fixture run of Brighton, Chelsea and West Ham at the start of the Premier League season and we’ve yet to see how they fare against a conventionally weak defence.
That brings us to Carlton Morris, Luton’s talisman who netted 20 goals in the Championship last term. The striker has the highest xG of any Hatters player so far this season (1.38), which is comparable to the likes of Alexander Isak at Newcastle (1.37), Martin Odegaard at Arsenal (1.36) and Rashford at Manchester United (1.41).
Morris is also Luton’s penalty taker, having scored a spot-kick against Brighton on the opening weekend. At £5.5m, all it takes are a few returns in the next five matches to justify his price tag.
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Popular £4.0m defender Issa Kabore was dropped in GW4 and could be a future rotation risk
Taiwo Awoniyi has returned in every match so far and has three goals despite an xG of just 1.76
Chelsea are frustrating – but trust the process!
I’ll be the first to admit that Chelsea are a frustrating watch as far as FPL is concerned. I was practically tearing my hair out during their 1-0 defeat by Nottingham Forest in GW4.
After waxing lyrical about both Sterling and Maddison ahead of the deadline, I opted for the Chelsea man as it enabled me a little extra cash for future transfers and his fixtures were more appealing in the medium-term.
The fact remains that Chelsea still boast a fixture run of Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Fulham and Burnley between now and GW9. Spurs, meanwhile, must play Arsenal and Liverpool in that run.
So there is still plenty of time for Sterling and Co to make amends after GW4’s disappointment. Unlike several other top teams, Chelsea do not have European football to contend with this season and this will keep their players fully fit and focused on each Premier League weekend.
Analysing the 1-0 defeat in GW4 more closely, both Sterling and Nicolas Jackson continued to register positive xG data despite failing to score or assist.
The former Manchester City star, who gained a full rest over the international break after being snubbed by England boss Gareth Southgate, was Chelsea’s best player in terms of xG against Forest with 0.86, while Jackson was close behind with 0.71.
Raheem Sterling blanked in GW4 as Chelsea suffered a drab 1-0 defeat by Nottingham Forest
Few players boast better xG than Nicolas Jackson but he’s failing to convert his opportunities
As far as one-match sample sizes go, this data is nothing to be sniffed at. It was better than Evan Ferguson‘s entire xG against Newcastle – and he scored a hat-trick.
The key argument against Chelsea is that their players too regularly fail to convert golden opportunities. Jackson, after being set up by Sterling, squandered yet another superb opportunity against Steve Cooper’s side – and the less said about Ben Chilwell‘s decision not to shoot against Luton in GW3 the better!
Given that the Blues’ fixtures take a turn for the worse in GW9 and their assets are struggling to take their chances, I have revised the statement I made last time to ‘go all-in on Chelsea’. I think two assets – or maybe even one – is plenty as it will allow you to pivot off them in a month’s time when the fixtures turn sour.
But for now, I wouldn’t get cold feet on Chelsea just yet. Chilwell, Jackson and Sterling are still all great assets in their own right, considering the promising matches they have over the horizon.
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