Top Fantasy Premier League tips for GW11: Rasmus Hojlund’s getting plenty of chances, Callum Wilson will feast in Alexander Isak’s absence, and Simon Adingra is a hidden gem at Brighton… TEN differentials to target in FPL
- Picking the right low-owned players can be a superb way of boosting rank in FPL
- A hatful of differentials have now emerged because of injuries and fixture swings
- Mail Sport takes a look at the best players with less than 10 per cent ownership
With ten Premier League weekends now in the history books, FPL managers are starting to revise their expectations for the season in terms of overall rank and mini-league aspirations.
In the early weeks of the season, a couple of points here or there had a major impact on green and red arrows, but now the field is starting to stretch from top to bottom.
Finding a few low-owned players can be an excellent way of catching up with the crowd – or even stretching further ahead of it – but targeting differentials is also a risky game. Punt on the wrong horse and you can end up even further behind, especially if you’ve neglected a heavily-owned player just in a bid to be different.
That being said, if you protect the balance of your squad – keeping those you believe to be excellent options regardless of ownership – a differential or two can go a long way in recovering rank or chasing down mini-league rivals.
With that in mind, Mail Sport takes a look at the best FPL differentials to consider ahead of Saturday’s GW11 deadline.
There was more joy for Erling Haaland owners in FPL last week as his two goals at Old Trafford helped reigning champions Manchester City beat rivals Manchester United 3-0 on Sunday
Eddie Nketiah backers were in dreamland after the Arsenal striker netted a hat-trick in GW10
Highest xG in 2023-24 so far
1. Erling Haaland, MCI – 10.22
2. Mohamed Salah, LIV – 7.41
3. Bryan Mbeumo, BRE – 6.34
4. Callum Wilson, NEW – 5.93
5. Alexander Isak, NEW – 5.41
6. Ollie Watkins, AVL – 4.88
7. Yoane Wissa, BRE – 4.35
8. Son Heung-min, TOT – 4.29
9. Nicolas Jackson, CHE – 4.23
10 = Jarrod Bowen, WHU – 4.05
10 = Bukayo Saka, ARS – 4.05
*xG = Expected goals
Liverpool’s in-form superstar Mohamed Salah remains in second spot in the xG table
Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.9m, 8.3% owned)
In bygone seasons, Trent Alexander-Arnold would’ve found himself nowhere near a differentials list. Yet here we are, with the Liverpool defender a mere 8.3 per cent owned heading into GW11.
Alexander-Arnold has averaged just shy of 184 points every season over the last five campaigns, thanks to a combination of explosive attacking potential and reliable clean sheets.
The latter has fallen by the wayside at the start of this season, with Jurgen Klopp’s side keeping just one clean sheet in their first eight fixtures, but successive shutouts against Nottingham Forest and Everton have put the defender back in the conversation, despite his hefty £7.9m price tag.
With premium trio Erling Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Son Heung-min scoring goals aplenty at the moment, few FPL managers are considering Liverpool’s playmaking right-back. And with just one top six side over the next half a dozen fixtures, Alexander-Arnold has every chance of rediscovering his explosive form.
That being said, it’s a high risk, high reward move. While he’s a solid option, there are also are catalogue of expensive in-form attackers in the game right now and you’ll likely be denying yourself one of these fruitful goalscorers by betting on the Reds defender.
Although it’s a lot of money to spend on a punt, the decision has the potential to rocket your team up the FPL leaderboard. Other managers will struggle to get to Alexander-Arnold quickly if he regularly starts to secure double-digit hauls like he used to.
Upcoming fixtures: Luton (A), Brentford (H), Man City (A), Fulham (H)
Trent Alexander-Arnold is one of the greatest FPL defenders of all time and could prove a fruitful differential during Liverpool’s kind run of fixtures between now and the end of the year
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Callum Wilson (£7.8m, 5.3% owned)
Were it not for Callum Wilson sharing minutes with Alexander Isak at Newcastle, the striker would likely be in every manager’s FPL team. Even with in-form forwards Ollie Watkins and Julian Alvarez offering excellent value, no player under £12.0m shows more explosive goal-scoring potential than Wilson when he plays.
Astonishingly, the Magpies forward is boasting an xG of 1.18 per 90 minutes this season. That’s superior to premium trio Haaland (1.12), Salah (0.77) and Son (0.49).
In layman’s terms, Wilson is currently expected to score six goals every five matches if he plays for a full 90 minutes. And now, with Isak set for a spell on the sidelines, the England international is going to enjoy a major boost in game time, provided he steers clear of injury himself.
Wilson took his goal tally to seven for the season with a brace against Wolves at the weekend, in what was only his second 90-minute outing of the campaign.
Isak, who injured his groin in the Champions League last week, is expected to be out for the next four matches in all competitions, meaning Wilson will likely face Arsenal and Bournemouth at the very least.
Newcastle’s initial timeframe for injured centre-back Sven Botman has now reportedly been extended, showing that the medical team are wary not to rush players back too quickly.
With Isak’s comeback unclear, now is certainly the time to target Newcastle’s goal-scoring talisman.
Upcoming fixtures: Arsenal (H), Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Man United (H)
Callum Wilson added two more goals to his tally for the season with a brace against Wolves
Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.1m, 5.9% owned)
Liverpool’s summer signing has quietly gone about his business in FPL this season, picking up five returns from 10 matches in Jurgen Klopp’s engine room.
Dominik Szoboszlai is the most advanced player in Liverpool’s three-man midfield and it showed on Sunday as he picked up two assists against Nottingham Forest at Anfield.
While Liverpool’s attacking quartet of Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez, Cody Gakpo and Diogo Jota offer more goal potential than the Hungarian, Szoboszlai is a regular 90-minute man under Klopp and a reliable starter week in week out.
With an ownership of just 5.9 per cent, and given Liverpool’s kind fixture run between now and GW17, Szoboszlai is an enticing differential for FPL managers.
To put his start to the season into perspective, Szoboszlai’s 44-point tally so far is better than both Bruno Fernandes (41) and Marcus Rashford (32) and just two points shy of FPL favourite Kaoru Mitoma.
Upcoming fixtures: Luton (A), Brentford (H), Man City (A), Fulham (H)
Summer signing Dominik Szoboszlai (above) is Liverpool’s third highest FPL scorer so far this season – behind Salah and Darwin Nunez – after two assists against Nottingham Forest in GW10
Rasmus Hojlund (£7.1m, 5.3% owned)
Before you run a mile, hear me out. Yes, Manchester United looked disastrous defensively in both the 3-0 defeat by Manchester City at the weekend, but they still created a hatful of chances against the best defence in the league.
And it was Rasmus Hojlund, United’s marquee summer signing, who was at the centre of most of those opportunities. There was a chorus of boos at Old Trafford when the Dane was substituted by Erik ten Hag, and it demonstrates how United fans see him as their best chance of scoring.
Owned by just 5.3 per cent of managers, Hojlund faces Fulham, Luton and Everton in his next three fixtures and will likely continue to attract a handful of opportunities. And once he breaks his duck in the Premier League, his confidence in front of goal will grow.
Hojlund seems very similar to Liverpool’s Nunez in that regard: a feast or famine player. While there are perhaps more reliable strikers in the game right now, such as Watkins or Alvarez, the Danish international has the potential and the fixtures to outscore the popular forward options, and thus could prove a handy differential.
FPL managers could even see Hojlund as a three-week experiment. See how he fares against the relegation candidates over the next few games and hopefully reap the rewards, before swapping him to Alvarez when Manchester City’s fixtures turn.
Upcoming fixtures: Fulham (A), Luton (H), Everton (A), Newcastle (A)
Rasmus Hojlund (left) had plenty of chances against Man City and has great fixtures to come
Hwang Hee-chan (£5.5m, 2.9% owned)
Pedro Neto has hogged all of the headlines at Molineux this season and rightly so: the Portuguese winger now leads the Premier League assist charts after creating another against Newcastle at the weekend.
Unfortunately, Neto picked up a knock and is a doubt for Wolves’ clash with cellar dwellers Sheffield United on Saturday. As stated in Mail Sport’s column on budget players last week, the £5.8m midfielder is probably still the best Wolves asset to go for in the long-term, but question marks over his fitness have opened up the conversation a little ahead of GW11.
At £0.3m cheaper, Hwang Hee-chan has accrued just three points fewer than Neto this season and is fit and raring to go for the weekend, with an FPL ownership of just 2.9 per cent. The South Korean has six goals and one assist to his name so far this campaign, which is an excellent return of investment at his price point.
While Neto focuses predominantly on playmaking and drawing players out to create space, Hwang enjoys coming off the left flank into more central areas and thus finds himself in goal-scoring positions more frequently.
His xG over the last six gameweeks (1.70) is better than that of Alvarez (1.24), James Maddison (1.22) and similarly-priced midfielder Anthony Gordon (1.55).
As he appears to have nailed down a long-term starting spot under Gary O’Neil and has a clash with the struggling Blades up next, Hwang offers a shrewd option for differential seekers ahead of GW11.
Upcoming fixtures: Sheffield United (A), Tottenham (H), Fulham (A), Arsenal (A)
Hwang Hee-chan has accrued just three FPL points fewer than Wolves team-mate Pedro Neto
Matheus Cunha (£5.5m, 0.9% owned)
Sticking at Molineux, Matheus Cunha is another Wolves attacker who promises to perform above his price tag over the next few weeks.
There’s no denying he is statistically inferior to both Hwang and Neto, having an xG of just 1.00 over the last six matches, but the Brazilian has a significant advantage over the duo in FPL: the fact he’s listed as a forward.
There’s an abundance of midfield options in FPL right now, headlined by free-scoring premiums Salah and Son. While trying to fit these two in, managers may also want to opt for the likes of Bukayo Saka, Maddison, Jarrod Bowen, Moussa Diaby and Bryan Mbeumo, to name a few.
Meanwhile, the forward market is far less saturated, with Watkins or Alvarez the main two partnering Haaland in attack within most managers’ teams.
Having registered little to no xG between GW5 and GW8, Cunha has improves significantly in front of goal in the last two matches, scoring at Bournemouth and coming close against Newcastle on a couple of occasions.
Arguably the ultimate differential on this list, with less than one per cent ownership, Cunha could well be that hidden gem rank-chasing managers are looking for.
Upcoming fixtures: Sheffield United (A), Tottenham (H), Fulham (A), Arsenal (A)
With less than one per cent ownership, Wolves’ Matheus Cunha is the ultimate FPL differential
Simon Adingra (£5.0m, 0.8% owned)
Every now and then in FPL, a talented player emerges from the shadows and offers managers a gloriously cheap option to maximise the value of their team.
Last week, Brighton winger Simon Adingra came very close to Mail Sport’s best budget options list and, after yet another start under Roberto De Zerbi, he looks a superb option until Solly March returns from injury.
Of course, and one main reason why he didn’t make the cut last week, De Zerbi is notorious for chopping and changing his side, so this differential pick comes with a health warning. But at £5.0m and just 0.8 per cent ownership, the Ivorian will only get more and more popular as he continues to pick up starts.
Jumping on Adingra early and getting ahead of the crowd is an astute move, seeing that Brighton have Everton, Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest in their next three games. Given that he’s started the last three outings for the Seagulls, there’s every chance Adingra features from the off in at least two of these matches.
It’s wise to consider an escape route for differentials if they fail to deliver, and Adingra fortunately has a perfect one. Chelsea’s Cole Palmer, who has very tough games between now and GW16, is a similar price and could be switched to once Brighton’s fixtures turn sour.
Upcoming fixtures: Everton (A), Sheffield Utd (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Chelsea (A)
If he continues to start, Brighton’s Simon Adingra looks to be a low-owned bargain at £5.0m
Lewis Dunk (£5.0m, 4.0% owned)
Lewis Dunk has largely been overlooked this season due to the attacking potential of Pervis Estupinan, but now it seems the stars are aligning for the Brighton captain.
As highlighted above, the Seagulls have a kind run of fixtures over the next three against three of the weakest attacks in the league, and thus there’s plenty of clean sheet potential for Dunk to cash in on.
With Estupinan still out injured, Dunk has emerged the danger man from defence in blue and white and has found himself attracting a host of chances in recent games.
No defender in the league has a better xG than the England international over the last six gameweeks (1.13), and the Brighton centre-half made that count with a goal against Liverpool in October.
Dunk has long been a danger from set-pieces and has even started taking a few free-kicks of his own recently. While there’s often an element of risk with differentials, you can’t go too far wrong with Dunk given his proven track record in FPL.
Upcoming fixtures: Everton (A), Sheffield Utd (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Chelsea (A)
No defender in the league has a better xG than Lewis Dunk over the last six gameweeks in FPL
Konstantinos Tsimikas (£4.6m, 7.8% owned)
If Alexander-Arnold is too expensive for your taste, you may wish to consider Konstantinos Tsimikas on the other side of Liverpool’s back line.
With first-choice stalwart Andrew Robertson out until late January, Tsimikas has suddenly found himself the go-to guy at left-back and is currently priced at a very affordable £4.6m in FPL.
It would be wrong to expect the Greek star to match Alexander-Arnold’s output in terms of attacking threat, but he looks a fantastic option given that he’s £3.3m cheaper than the right-back.
Of course, Klopp may choose to reshape his back four from time to time, dropping or resting Tsimikas for an extra centre-half and pushing Alexander-Arnold into midfield, but it’s safe to assume the left-back will continue starting if Liverpool persist with their favoured four-man defence.
Against Nottingham Forest and Everton, Tsimikas actually offered better xA than his full-back partner, while Alexander-Arnold boasted superior xG.
Upcoming fixtures: Luton (A), Brentford (H), Man City (A), Fulham (H)
Konstantinos Tsimikas (left) and Jamal Lascelles (right) have also emerged as superb differentials in defence thanks to a handful of injury issues at both Liverpool and Newcastle
Jamal Lascelles (£4.0m, 3.5% owned)
Eddie Howe revealed this week that Botman’s injury could be long-term. If this is to be believed, Jamal Lascelles has suddenly emerged both a brilliant differential and budget option.
Cheap enough that he can sit on your bench every now and then, Lascelles plays for one of the best defences in the league in Newcastle and has a nice run of fixtures between GW12 and GW19.
Fabian Schar, priced at £5.2m, is no doubt the more attacking of the two: the £4.0m defender has put up a pretty miserable xGI (expected goal involvement) since his tenure in the first team, but bread-and-butter clean sheets are certainly nothing to be sniffed at, considering his price.
Rather than opting for Lascelles instead of Schar, Kieran Trippier or Dan Burn, the best strategy is likely doubling up on the Newcastle defence. The Magpies are statistically the second best defensive in the league behind Manchester City, and having two defenders during their favourable fixtures will likely bear fruit.
Upcoming fixtures: Arsenal (H), Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Man United (H)
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