Thursday Night Football odds, line: Texans vs. Dolphins picks, predictions from advanced model on 62-43 run

The red-hot Houston Texans, winners of four straight, go for five in a row on Thursday Night Football when they host the Miami Dolphins. Kickoff from NRG Stadium is 8:20 p.m. ET. The Texans, who were dwelling at the bottom of the AFC South just a month ago, are now in first place after a dominating 20-7 win over the Jaguars. The Dolphins, losers of three of their previous four, were bested by the Detroit Lions 32-21 last week. The Texans opened as 7-point favorites and now are laying 7.5. The Over-Under, which opened at 45, is 44.5 in the latest Dolphins vs. Texans odds. Before you make any Dolphins vs. Texans picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. 

The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. It went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.   

It went 10-4 straight-up in a wild Week 7, including calling the Patriots’ huge win over the Bears, improving its record to a blistering 71-34 on the season. And when it comes to all of its top-rated picks, it is now on a strong 62-43 run. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up. 

Now, the model has simulated the Dolphins vs. Texans 10,000 times. We can tell you the over is hitting in 58 percent of simulations, but the model has also produced a strong against-the-spread pick that hits well over 50 percent of the time. This pick is available only at SportsLine.

The model has factored in that the Texans’ aggressive defense is firing on all cylinders behind Pro Bowler J.J. Watt. The defensive end is having a sensational season and is among the league leaders in sacks with seven and forced fumbles with four. Defensively, the team is yielding just 12.0 points per contest over its last three. 

Quarterback Deshaun Watson’s improved play is a big reason behind the Texans’ recent hot streak. The second-year star has thrown for 1,937 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He’s also racked up 216 yards on the ground.

Just because the Texans are atop their division doesn’t mean they’ll cover on Thursday Night Football.

Dolphins backup quarterback Brock Osweiler, who will start Thursday in place of Ryan Tannehill (shoulder), is 1-1 in his two previous starts this season, beating the Bears before losing to the Lions. He’s completing 68 percent of his passes for 654 yards and six touchdowns.

Helping to keep the pressure off Osweiler is the effective one-two punch of running backs Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake. Gore is tops with 332 rushing yards, while Drake is averaging nearly 5 yards per carry and has 25 receptions for 160 yards and three total scores. Miami beat the AFC South Titans in Week 1 by seven.

Who wins Dolphins vs. Texans? And which side covers well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.

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