The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are expected to meet in Super Bowl 54 in two weeks’ time. San Francisco and Kansas City are both favored by 7.5 points on the NFL betting line this Sunday, but large favorites haven’t fared well during conference championship week over the last two decades.
Since 1999, there have been 16 conference championship games with a spread of six points or more and the favorite is 11-5 straight up and 5-11 ATS in those games. That bodes well for underdogs Green Bay and Tennessee, who are looking to pull off the upset and play for a Super Bowl title in Miami.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers, O/U 45
There hasn’t been a ton of line movement in the NFC championship game. San Francisco opened as a touchdown favorite over Green Bay on Sunday evening, and there was some initial action on the Packers. The line dipped down to 6.5 points for a brief moment before moving back to a flat seven, but then we saw San Francisco money push the number off seven early in the week. It’s likely that this number closes at seven though since the hook will be very alluring closer to kickoff.
The total has not moved since it opened. Oddsmakers nailed this number on the nose as it hasn’t fluctuated off 45 throughout the week, and it isn’t expected to change, barring some late changes in terms of injuries or weather.
Green Bay is 7-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season, but that one loss came in Santa Clara. The Packers were dismantled by Robert Saleh’s defense as the 49ers cruised to a 37-8 victory in late November. Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career, throwing for just 104 yards in the loss, and Green Bay failed to top 200 total yards on the evening.
The Packers have relished the underdog role in the postseason though, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog in the playoffs. San Francisco has not fared well as a favorite in recent history posting a 7-19-1 ATS mark in their last 27 games in which they were favored, but the Niners have covered five of their last seven games against Green Bay.
Over has been the bet to make in the NFC championship game, as the over has cashed in 18 of the last 28 clashes. Four of the last five games have gone over the total, and the over is 10-4 since 2005.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, O/U 53
Tennessee went into Arrowhead Stadium and knocked off Kansas City earlier in the season, so the Titans are confident they can pull off the upset to reach the Super Bowl for just the second time in their history. Derrick Henry has been a force of nature over his last eight games, running for over 1,200 yards to put the Titans within a game of the Super Bowl, but Tennessee is a sizable underdog per the NFL betting odds in this game.
There has been no movement in terms of the total as the spread has remained constant at Kansas City -7.5 since Sunday night. However, we have seen some sizable action on the over as this number has moved from 51 to 53 points. Both defenses will be hard-pressed to get off the field, so this has the makings of a shootout.
The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games, and they are a sterling 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. They have already gone into Kansas City, New England, and Baltimore and walked out with wins over the second half of the season, so they are likely to be a popular moneyline pick later in the week.
Kansas City has been even hotter though, posting a 6-0-1 ATS mark in its last seven games. However, the Andy Reid curse remains intact, and despite last week’s cover against Houston, the Chiefs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 postseason games. Tennessee has covered four straight games against Kansas City, and the Titans are confident they can control the clock with Henry carrying the load.
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