College football odds, picks, lines for Week 11: Proven computer model loving Arkansas, Alabama

For several of the top 2018 College Football Playoff contenders, Saturday is about avoiding the big upset. In the latest Week 11 college football odds, top-ranked Alabama is favored by 23.5 points at home against No. 18 Mississippi State in a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS. No. 2 Clemson is favored by 19 points at No. 17 Boston College, while No. 3 Notre Dame has seen its line against Florida State drop from -18 to -16 as the Irish turn back to Brandon Wimbush as the starting quarterback with Ian Book (ribs) out. With college football odds and lines constantly moving, be sure to check out the top Week 11 college football picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model before locking in any of your own.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks. 

And in Week 10, it absolutely nailed the biggest game of the season, recommending the Crimson Tide against the spread (-14), on the money line (-588) and hitting the under in Alabama’s 29-0 blowout of LSU. It also nailed its top-rated selection of Auburn (-3.5) over Texas A&M, helping the model finish the weekend on a strong 7-3 run on all top-rated picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has simulated every single play of Week 11 and its college football predictions are in. 

One of the Week 11 college football picks the model is recommending: No. 1 Alabama (-23.5) continues to not only win, but also surpass oddsmakers’ expectations, as it covers against No. 18 Mississippi State.

Even facing lines regularly surpassing three or four touchdowns, Alabama is 6-3 against the spread this season. Early action has already pushed this line two points in favor or Alabama, but the model is still backing the Tide. A week after completely blanking LSU, Alabama limits Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald to under 200 yards of total offense on its way to covering in almost 60 percent of simulations. 

Another one of the Week 11 college football picks the model loves: Arkansas (+12.5) covers at home against No. 9 LSU. 

The Tigers are looking to bounce back from a 29-0 loss against Alabama that ended their chances of an SEC West crown and put them on the outside looking in for a College Football Playoff bid. And while the model projects the Tigers to pick up the road win, Arkansas is the best bet to cover. 

It’s been a struggle in Year 1 for Chad Morris at Arkansas, but the Razorbacks (2-7) have kept three of their last four SEC games within two touchdowns. The simulations point to LSU scoring fewer than 30 points, helping Arkansas cover in almost 60 percent of simulations. The model is also calling for 48 total points, giving slight value to the under (48.5).

The model also has made the call on the huge ACC showdown between No. 2 Clemson and No. 22 Boston College, and is projecting a top College Football Playoff contender to get a massive scare. 

So what college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? And what playoff contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest Week 11 college football odds below, and then visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,000 in profit over the past three seasons.

Ole Miss at Texas A&M (-13, 66.5)
Navy at Central Florida (-24.5, 64)
TCU at West Virginia (-11.5, 55.5)
Wisconsin at Penn State (-9, 53.5)
Vanderbilt at Missouri (-17, 63)
South Carolina at Florida (-6, 54)
Ohio State at Michigan State (+3.5, 50)
Michigan at Rutgers (+38.5, 47.5)
Kentucky at Tennessee (+5, 41)
Baylor at Iowa State (-15.5, 51)
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-21, 79.5)
Northwestern at Iowa (-10.5, 42)
Washington State at Colorado (+6, 61.5)
Mississippi State at Alabama (-23.5, 52.5)
Oregon at Utah (-4, 54.5)
South Florida at Cincinnati (-14, 56.5)
Auburn at Georgia (-14, 52.5)
Texas at Texas Tech (+1.5, 62)
LSU at Arkansas (+12.5, 48.5)
Florida State at Notre Dame (-16, 51.5)
Clemson at Boston College (+19, 56.5)
Oregon State at Stanford (-24, 61)
California at Southern California (-5, 46)

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